The Iron Throne Universe’s Greatest ‘What If’ Moments

The Game of Thrones universe is defined by these moments where one decision, one death, one missed opportunity changes absolutely everything that comes after. Some of these moments actually happened in the shows. Others are the roads not taken, the possibilities that existed just before someone made a terrible choice. What’s wild about Westeros is how often you can point to a specific moment and think, “If that had gone differently, everything after would be completely different.” Let’s explore the greatest what-ifs that would have fundamentally altered the history of the Seven Kingdoms.

What If Rhaegar Had Won the Rebellion?

This might be the biggest what-if in the entire franchise. Rhaegar Targaryen is facing Robert Baratheon at the Trident. If Rhaegar wins that battle, he kills Robert, secures the rebellion, and the Targaryen dynasty continues. But instead, Rhaegar loses, Robert wins, and everything changes. The entire game table gets flipped.

If Rhaegar had won, the Targaryens stay in power. Presumably, Rhaegar deals with his father Aerys II’s madness in some way—maybe he commits him to a tower somewhere or works around him. Rhaegar and Lyanna’s son (Jon Snow) would be born into a realm where his father is alive and his family is secure. There’s no Robert’s Rebellion, no Sack of King’s Landing, no Starks trying to survive a hostile Targaryen regime. Rhaegar is consistently portrayed as more honorable and less crazy than his father, so presumably his rule would have been better.

The political consequences would be insane. Daenerys is never exiled to Essos. She doesn’t grow up dreaming of reclaiming an iron throne that nobody’s actually threatening. She’s just a Targaryen princess, maybe married off for political alliance, living a normal(ish) life. The entire foundation of her character—this burning desire to reclaim her family’s throne—is built on the assumption that the Targaryens lost it. If they hadn’t lost it, she’d be a completely different person.

More broadly, without Robert’s Rebellion, there’s no Robert Baratheon as king. The kingdom gets ruled by Rhaegar, who everyone respects as a warrior and a leader. Arguably, you don’t get to the civil war that happens in the books and show because there’s a more stable, more competent person in charge. You might not get the chaos. You might not get the dragons returning. You might not get any of this.

What If Jon Arryn Hadn’t Died?

Jon Arryn’s death is presented as mysterious, and when Robert asks him to go south and figure out who Joffrey’s real father is, Jon agrees. But if he’d just… declined the job, everything would be different. Robert probably lives longer because he doesn’t spiral into despair about Cersei and Lyanna and all his disappointments. Stark-Lannister relations don’t deteriorate because Jon never finds out about the incest. Ned doesn’t go south to investigate, so he never gets beheaded.

Actually, rethinking this—if Jon Arryn doesn’t die in the first place, he never starts investigating the truth about Joffrey’s parentage. Cersei never feels threatened by him. Everything that flows from his death and Robert’s demand for Ned to come south might not happen. Sure, there would probably be other reasons for conflict eventually, but the specific chain of events that leads to Ned’s death, the fall of House Stark, and the War of the Five Kings is set in motion by Jon Arryn’s death. If he’d just lived, everything changes.

What If Ned Had Kept His Mouth Shut?

Ned Stark is obsessed with honor and truth, which are both great qualities for a person and terrible qualities for a political player. When he figures out that Joffrey isn’t Robert’s kid, he decides to tell people. He tells Cersei in the hopes that she’ll leave before he reveals the truth. But instead, she immediately warns Tywin and Jaime, and they prepare for war. If Ned had just kept his mouth shut and gone to the small council with evidence already prepared, or if he’d handled it differently, everything changes.

Basically, Ned gives Cersei the chance to prepare for his reveal by warning her first. That’s not honor; that’s strategic incompetence. If he’d been smarter about it, he might have actually gotten Robert to believe him before Cersei could spread counter-evidence. Or he might have had Stannis and Renly ready to support him. But because he gives Cersei a warning, she gets the upper hand, and by the time Ned is ready to reveal the truth, Robert is dead and Cersei controls the throne and the royal guard. His honor literally kills him.

What If Catelyn Hadn’t Released Jaime?

Catelyn makes one of the most impactful decisions of the entire series when she decides to release Jaime Lannister in exchange for her daughters. Robb is furious because he’d been using Jaime as leverage for a better peace deal. But Catelyn does it anyway because she believes it’s the right moral choice. Except it absolutely is not, because Jaime immediately goes back to the war and continues fighting. The Lannisters never honor the deal to return her daughters. Catelyn has given up her most valuable prisoner for nothing.

If she’d kept Jaime, Robb would have had continued leverage over the Lannisters. Tywin Lannister cares about his son, and losing Jaime is a source of constant pressure. By releasing Jaime, Catelyn removes that leverage and strengthens the Lannister war effort directly. You can draw a line from Catelyn’s decision to release Jaime to the Red Wedding, because without the leverage of holding Jaime, Robb’s position becomes less tenable. Walder Frey starts looking for a better opportunity. And the Freys and Boltons see their chance.

What If Cersei Hadn’t Been So Obviously Evil?

Cersei is her own worst enemy. She’s smart enough to manipulate people and play the game, but she’s not smart enough to actually be subtle about it. She poisons Robert. She gets herself and her kids arrested for incest. She pisses off every alliance partner she has. And she blows up the Grand Sept with wildfire, which destroys any legitimacy the Crown has left.

If Cersei had been more cautious, more subtle, less prone to angry outbursts and obvious power grabs, she might have actually consolidated power. But she’s driven by rage and paranoia, and those impulses keep pushing her toward increasingly destructive choices. If she’d managed to be patient and strategic instead of emotional and reactive, the Lannisters might have actually held the throne. Instead, she guarantees her own downfall by being too obvious about her crimes.

What If Daenerys Hadn’t Eaten Those Eggs?

This is a smaller change but it ripples through everything. Daenerys has these ancient dragon eggs that are essentially fossilized, and everyone tells her they’re dead. But she puts them in the fire anyway (because she’s immune to fire, or the red priestess magic, or something), and they hatch. Three living dragons are born for the first time in centuries. Those dragons allow her to conquer Essos, build an army, sail to Westeros, and become a threat to the throne.

If those eggs had just stayed eggs, Daenerys is still a talented leader and organizer, but she doesn’t have the military asset that makes her unstoppable. She’s a queen without a kingdom, still trying to build an army through loyalty and politics. She might eventually make it to Westeros, but she’s not the same apocalyptic threat. The dragons are what make her dangerous in a way that can’t be countered by traditional military means. Without them, the game is completely different.

What If Joffrey Had Been Competent?

This is probably the most chaotic what-if because Joffrey is such a terrible person that he actively sabotages himself constantly. He kills Ned Stark against his mother’s advice, which turns the North against him. He antagonizes Tywin Lannister. He murders the Starks and their army but then acts surprised when the Starks’ allies come for revenge. He’s a king who doesn’t understand that as a king, his actions have consequences.

If Joffrey had just been competent—if he’d listened to Cersei, if he’d actually maintained political alliances, if he’d understood how to play the game instead of just throwing tantrums—the Lannister-Baratheon alliance might have actually held power long enough to secure the throne. But because Joffrey is an absolute moron, he undermines his own position repeatedly. He’s the personification of inherited power without earned wisdom. If he’d been smarter, the entire trajectory of the war would have been different.

What If The Starks Had United Earlier?

The tragedy of the Starks is that they’re constantly divided. Robb is in the Riverlands fighting Lannisters. Bran and Rickon are running from the Boltons. Arya is escaping, then serving a tyrant, then a terrorist organization. Jon Snow is beyond the Wall, then becomes king in the north, then dies, then comes back, then leaves. Sansa is being victimized politically while Winterfell falls. If these five kids had all just decided to work together earlier, they’d have been unstoppable.

The Stark name alone carries weight in the North. The Stark children together would have resources, loyalty, and military strength. But they’re kept apart by circumstance, betrayal, and geography. By the time some of them reunite, they’ve lost Ned, lost Catelyn, lost Robb, lost many others. If they’d managed to coordinate earlier—if Robb and Jon had some way to work together, if Sansa had escaped south to be with her siblings instead of being trapped in the capital—the North’s story could have been much more triumphant.

What If Theon Hadn’t Taken Winterfell?

Theon makes one of the most pointless, self-destructive decisions in the entire series when he decides to take Winterfell and hold it for his father. Robb gives him an important military mission—to go convince his father Balon to not invade the north from the west—and instead Theon decides to prove himself by conquering Winterfell. He’s immediately captured by Ramsay Bolton, castrated, tortured, and broken.

If Theon had just done what Robb asked—if he’d gone to the Iron Islands and actually tried to convince his father to stay out of the war—he might have saved the Northern flank. Or he might have just gotten captured anyway, but at least he would have tried to do what was asked of him. Instead, he makes this insane decision that destroys his life and probably contributes to the Starks’ loss of the North. One guy’s arrogance basically costs an entire house their home.

What If Tyrion Hadn’t Pushed Bran Out The Window?

Actually, wait—Tyrion didn’t push Bran. That was Jaime. But this is such a massive what-if that it deserves mention. When Jaime pushes Bran out the window, he’s trying to keep Bran from revealing his relationship with Cersei. But the consequences of that push ripple through the entire series. Bran survives but is comatose, which sets Catelyn off on a quest for justice that leads to her releasing Jaime, which leads to basically everything else.

If Jaime had just let Bran live and run back to the castle, Robert would still eventually figure out the truth about Joffrey being a bastard. The dynamics would be different, but the fundamental conflict between the Lannisters and the Starks might happen anyway. But the specific chain of events—Bran climbing the tower, getting pushed, the fallout from that—is what starts everything spinning. One violent moment in the first episode sets in motion decades of consequences.

What If Stannis Had Won at the Blackwater?

If Stannis Baratheon had defeated the Lannisters at the Blackwater—if Tyrion hadn’t used wildfire, if the Lannisters and Tyrells hadn’t shown up in time—Stannis would be king. He’s not a particularly good king, but he’s a competent military commander and administrator. With Stannis as the legitimate king, the realm might have stabilized earlier. There wouldn’t be a Joffrey making terrible decisions. There wouldn’t be Tommen being manipulated by Cersei.

But this assumes Stannis would have actually been a good ruler, which is not clear. He’s rigid, obsessed with honor and duty in an inflexible way, and he’s been influenced by Melisandre to believe his own mythology. He might have become authoritarian in different ways than Joffrey would have. But at minimum, he would have been a more competent person making strategic decisions. The realm might not have descended into quite as much chaos.

Conclusion: The Weight of Decisions

The great thing about the Game of Thrones universe is that it constantly demonstrates that history is made by specific decisions made by specific people. There’s no grand destiny that forces everything to happen the way it does. Rhaegar could have won. Ned could have played politics more carefully. Catelyn could have kept Jaime. Jaime could have not pushed Bran. Each of these moments is a fork in the road where things could have gone completely differently, and we only know how one path unfolded because we watched it happen.

This is what makes the franchise so compelling—it’s not about inevitable tragedy. It’s about how small decisions, made by imperfect people trying to do what they think is right (or what they think will benefit them), create massive cascading consequences. You can point to almost any major event and trace it back to specific choices made by specific people. And you can imagine how different everything would be if those people had made different choices. That uncertainty, that sense that things could have been different, is what makes Westeros feel real and compelling to viewers.